Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABNT20 KNHC 272316 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Philippe, located about 600 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL91): Showers and thunderstorms have become a little more concentrated with an area of low pressure located roughly halfway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, as long as this system remains far enough removed from Tropical Storm Philippe to its west. A tropical depression or storm is expected to form in the next day or so while the system moves northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Papin
Tropical Storm Tropical
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Summary for Tropical Storm Philippe (AT2/AL172023)
...PHILIPPE MOVING SLOWER... ...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 27 the center of Philippe was located near 17.7, -54.0 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tropical Storm Philippe
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Tropical Storm Philippe Public Advisory Number 18
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 27 2023 000 WTNT32 KNHC 272037 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 500 PM AST Wed Sep 27 2023 ...PHILIPPE MOVING SLOWER... ...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 54.0W ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 54.0 West. Philippe is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two, with slow weakening forecast this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and northern and eastern Puerto Rico Saturday through Monday. Elsewhere across Puerto Rico, 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected. Heavy rainfall from Philippe may produce isolated urban and small stream flooding impacts. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kelly ]]> -
Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Advisory Number 18
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 27 2023000 WTNT22 KNHC 272036 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 2100 UTC WED SEP 27 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 54.0W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 120SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 54.0W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 53.7W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.1N 55.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.6N 56.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.9N 57.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.9N 58.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 10NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.8N 60.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.7N 61.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 18.4N 64.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 18.2N 66.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 54.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
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Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Discussion Number 18
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 27 2023000 WTNT42 KNHC 272038 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 500 PM AST Wed Sep 27 2023 Philippe's convection continues to oscillate this afternoon. Shortly after the previous advisory, the convection waned and has become less organized. An ASCAT-C pass showed that the center of the system has become more ill-defined, with the low-level center difficult to pinpoint this afternoon. Convection continues to redevelop back to the east, with the expected mean center on the west side of the convection. This was further supported by an AMSR microwave overpass depicting and overall lack of organization. Subjective Dvorak data-T numbers have come down with the current intensity estimates remaining at 3.0. Given the earlier ASCAT-B pass and the CI intensity estimates, the initial intensity will is held at 45 kt, but this could be generous. This is a fairly complicated intensity and track forecast. Philippe is in a sheared environment, and currently lacks organization. The system is forecast to move into a slightly drier mid-level airmass in a few days, which may also inhibit the overall convective pattern. Some slight fluctuations in intensity may occur due to the pulsing convective nature of the system during the next few days, with an overall slow weakening trend later this weekend. There remains uncertainty in the intensity forecast and it is possible Philippe maintains its tropical cyclone status as it reaches the northern Leeward Islands, or the system could weaken and open into a trough. The estimated motion is west-northwestward at 4 kt. Philippe is currently being steered by the flow around a weak mid-level ridge and is expected to move west-northwestward over the next couple of days. In the latter part of the forecast period, a weakening and shallow system should turn toward the west-southwest. There is unusually large spread in the model guidance this cycle with the GFS and ECMWF over 1100 miles apart on Day 5. The GFS is stronger and on the right side, of the guidance envelope which has pulled the consensus aids right as well. The ECMWF is weaker and on the left side of the guidance. The track forecast is highly dependent on the intensity forecast, however. The official track forecast is similar to the previous forecast, just slower given the initial slower motion, which is closest to the ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 17.7N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 18.1N 55.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 18.6N 56.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 18.9N 57.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 18.9N 58.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 30/0600Z 18.8N 60.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 18.7N 61.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 18.4N 64.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1800Z 18.2N 66.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly
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Tropical Storm Philippe Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 27 2023000 FONT12 KNHC 272037 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 2100 UTC WED SEP 27 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) SAINT JOHN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER KELLY -
Tropical Storm Philippe Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 27 Sep 2023 20:38:42 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 27 Sep 2023 21:22:55 GMT